India vs Pakistan: Abhishek IN, Samson OUT, Kuldeep vs Varun on a Used Pitch?

Abhishek is almost certainly going to play, and it isn’t really about whether Samson deserves to be in the team on his ability; it’s more about how India want to structure their overs and bowling combinations on a pitch at Premadasa which will have been used. The Indian management have said publicly that Abhishek is fit and will be in the eleven.

I’d assess the three major decisions as being Abhishek instead of Samson, then Kuldeep or Varun (or perhaps both) on a pitch which is predicted to be slow and helpful to spin bowlers.

Why Abhishek IN is a tactical choice

What Abhishek offers to India:

The injury/illness situation

Abhishek’s return is being seen as a positive because India feel that the conditions are suited to the extra “effect” he brings at the top of the order.

Why Samson OUT is the most sensible sacrifice

Samson’s issue isn’t his skill – it’s that his role is too similar to others.

In the current Indian setup, you usually have:

• One wicketkeeper-batter (Ishan Kishan),
• A reliable middle-order batter (Suryakumar),
• Two or three all-rounders/finishers (Hardik, Dube, Tilak/Axar – to provide balance),
• And the question then becomes: another batter or another bowler?

On a pitch at Colombo which has been used, and where spin is expected to be important in the middle overs, India are better off including an extra “difficult” bowler, rather than a further top-six batter.

Also, Samson was given an opportunity when Abhishek was missing for the game against Namibia, but India’s main conclusion from that match was how well their bowling – including the spin – had controlled the match.

So “Samson OUT” means:

• Kishan will keep wicket (so a second wicketkeeper is unnecessary),
• Abhishek comes back into the top order,
• India keep the rest of the batting lineup the same,
• And use the extra place to make the bowling as good as it can be for the pitch.

Kuldeep vs Varun on a used pitch

A pitch at Premadasa which has been used usually favours two things:

• changes in pace, and
• spin bowling which makes the batter doubt what is happening (the ball dipping, drifting, the bowler’s release point being deceptive, and the use of wrong’uns).

This is why the Kuldeep vs Varun choice is interesting: they put pressure on batters in different ways.

When Varun is the better option

• If the pitch is uneven and batters are forced to try to sweep or slog early.
• If you want a bowler who can “hide” the ball and win by batters making bad decisions, instead of getting a lot of spin.
• If you want to take control and get easy wickets (batters mis-hitting the ball into the gaps in the field).

Varun is also in good form after taking wickets against Namibia.

When Kuldeep is the better option

• If the pitch looks dry and likely to break up, so the ball can grip and spin past the outside edge.
• If you want more of the typical wristspin threat: the batter expects the ball to turn, but then a wrong’un arrives and beats the shot.
• If you want to take wickets in the middle overs, rather than just slowing the scoring down.

There has been talk of India thinking about including an extra spinner, and specifically Kuldeep, for the Colombo conditions.

The best answer might be: play both

Kuldeep and Varun

Considering the pitch conditions (used, slow, spin will be a factor), the best eleven for Colombo is one which can bowl 12 overs of good spin without bowling the same thing repeatedly.

That suggests an appealing combination:

• Axar (control and a left-arm angle),
• Varun (mystery and changes in pace),
• Kuldeep (wicket-taking wristspin).

The cost of this is usually a specialist fast bowler – which is why people are talking about swapping Arshdeep for Kuldeep, to have a heavier spin attack.

Two possible XIs depending on weather and dew

There’s also the possibility of rain/dew in Colombo, and that can change everything. If it is damp and the ball slides on, captains usually trust fast bowling more, and reduce the amount of spin (or only use their two best spin bowlers).

Option A: Balanced

(safer if there’s dew / the ball slides)

• 3 fast-bowling options (including Hardik/Dube as support)
• 2 main spin bowlers
• Choose: Varun instead of Kuldeep if the pitch looks sticky rather than dusty, because deception can work better than relying on a lot of spin in dew.

Option B: Used-pitch maximiser

(if it looks dry and slow at the toss)

• Bumrah as the main fast bowler,
• Hardik + Dube as fast-bowling support,
• Axar + Varun + Kuldeep as the spin attack.
• Choose: both Varun and Kuldeep – because Pakistan will then have to deal with three very different spin bowling problems, not just “spin generally”.

My choice for a used Premadasa pitch

Abhishek IN: increases the threat in the powerplay and gives a bonus bowling option.

Samson OUT: the easiest way to keep the roles clear and add bowling strength.

Varun vs Kuldeep:

• If you can only play one, I would choose Varun for Colombo’s “mis-hit economy” and his current form.
• If the pitch looks really worn and dry, the bold (and possibly best) thing to do is to play Varun + Kuldeep together with Axar – really making the most of the pitch.

If you want, I can set out bowling plans – over by over – for each eleven, so you can see exactly why the Kuldeep/Varun decision changes the whole game.